Welfare vs. Climate: Lessons from Germany’s 9-Euro Ticket
Wichert et al.: "Almost fare free: Impact of a cheap public transport ticket on mobility patterns and train delays" Journal of Public Economics 258 (2026)
The introduction of Germany’s temporary 9-Euro Ticket in the summer of 2022 offered a rare, large-scale experiment in the effects of radical public transport subsidies on nationwide mobility. A recent study by CRC member Sebastian Wichert (LMU Munich & ifo Institute) and co-authors provides a rigorous evaluation of this policy, utilising mobile-phone-based mobility-data, road monitoring data and train delay records. Their findings reveal a complex picture of high price elasticity for train trips alongside significant resistance to mode-shifting among motorists.
The authors report that while the 9-Euro Ticket triggered a substantial 35% increase in rail trips, it induced only a modest 1% to 5% reduction in car traffic. This disparity suggests limited car-to-rail substitution. Heterogeneity analysis further clarifies this dynamic, showing that the surge in rail travel was predominantly driven by leisure trips, particularly on weekends and toward rural touristic destinations. Conversely, commuter road traffic remained remarkably inelastic, with the smallest reductions observed during peak morning and afternoon hours.
This massive influx of passengers, implemented without immediate capacity expansions, severely strained the existing rail infrastructure. The authors find that the share of delayed trains rose by roughly 30% overall. While regional services (the primary target of the ticket) saw delays increase by 41%, the congestion effects spilled over to untreated long-distance trains, which experienced an 18% rise in delays. These systemic disruptions highlight the “unintended” costs of “go-anywhere” tickets.
From a welfare perspective, the study employs a Marginal Value of Public Funds (MVPF) framework to assess the policy’s efficiency. The 9-Euro Ticket generated approximately 1.6 euros of social value per euro of net fiscal cost, primarily due to large gains in consumer surplus for both existing and new riders. However, as a climate tool, the policy proved exceptionally expensive. The authors calculate a CO2 abatement cost of roughly 6,140 euros per ton CO2 abated, far exceeding established benchmarks for cost-effective mitigation. Ultimately, the results suggest that deeply discounted nationwide tickets are effective short-term instruments for redistributive cost-of-living transfers but are poorly suited as stand-alone climate policies without accompanying investments in rail capacity and reliability.
Link: Almost fare free: Impact of a cheap public transport ticket on mobility patterns and train delays
